Vanessa Wilson, Ottawa mortgage broker and Mortgage Agent Level 2 with Referral Mortgages, offering mortgage pre-approvals, renewals, and refinancing.

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Canada September 2026 inflation update showing Parliament Hill, Canadian flag, financial charts and housing imagery representing the impact of inflation on mortgage rates.

Canada Inflation September 2026 | Mortgage Rate Outlook

October 19, 2026•1 min read

Canada’s September Inflation Update:

What It Means for Mortgage Rates

October 19, 2026

Canada’s September inflation report was released this morning, delivering mixed results ahead of the Bank of Canada’s next interest rate announcement on October 28, 2026.

September Inflation Results

Inflation Measure

Actual

Previous

Consensus

Headline CPI (YoY)

3.1%

3.0%

3.2%

Core CPI (YoY)

2.2%

2.4%

—

CPI Common (YoY)

2.4%

2.6%

2.6%

CPI Median (YoY)

1.9%

2.0%

1.9%

CPI Trimmed (YoY)

1.8%

1.9%

1.9%

The Good News and the Bad News

The bad news: Headline inflation increased slightly to 3.1%, largely driven by higher energy and transportation costs. However, it remained below market expectations of 3.2%.

The good news: The Bank of Canada’s preferred measures of underlying inflation continued to improve. CPI Median declined to 1.9%, while CPI Trimmed fell to 1.8%, both below the Bank of Canada’s 2% target.

What Does This Mean for Mortgage Rates?

These results provide some support for the Bank of Canada to hold its overnight interest rate steady on October 28, particularly as broader inflation pressures appear to be easing.

For homeowners and buyers, variable mortgage rates remain competitive compared with current fixed-rate offerings. However, fixed mortgage rates are influenced by bond yields and can increase independently of Bank of Canada decisions.

My Takeaway: While headline inflation remains elevated, the improvement in underlying inflation is encouraging. The upcoming Bank of Canada announcement will be important for homeowners considering whether to remain variable or lock into a fixed rate.

Every mortgage situation is different. Before making changes to your mortgage, let's review your options and explore strategies to minimize your overall borrowing costs.

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Vanessa Wilson | Mortgage Agent Level 2 | Referral Mortgages

Source: Statistics Canada, September 2026 Consumer Price Index.

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Vanessa Wilson

Deciding between a fixed or variable rate mortgage

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Vanessa Wilson

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Licence #M21002877

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